Blackjack Basic Strategy Decisions Compared

Blackjack buffs justly regret a dealer's 10-up. Particularly when their own hands total is 15, 16, or 17. They distinguish the impasse, instinctively if not mathematically. Deciding to stand, they can't win except the dealer busts which don’t look as if it happens often. Deciding to hit, they need a card high enough to beat the dealer but not go over 2. This is doable but not specially promising.

One of the worst hands is the one with a total of 16. According to basic strategy in blackjack, players are advised to hit and most of them respect this blackjack playing strategy. Having no data on the proportions of ranks remaining in the shoe when you need to take a playing decision, if you choose to hit according to the blackjack basic strategy chart, you will average the least amount of loss.

But you might be surprised at how little the distinction is between the blackjack betting strategy options. To explain this better, for starters let’s ignore shoe size, ranks comprising the 16, and rounds in which the dealer has blackjack. In this situation, the blackjack dealer holds 22.98% odds of busting, which is your chance of winning by standing. You can’t push, so the odds of losing represent the other 77.02%.

Given that the wager is for even money, edge equals the probability of winning minus that of losing. And this is calculated like this: 22.98% - 77.02% = -54.04%, in which the minus represents that the house is favored. In monetary terms, for every buck at risk when you see 16 versus 10, you'll average a loss of 54.04 cents.

Now, deciding to hit you will have 61.54% odds of busting and/or losing. It is possible not to bust but a lose is sure as you will finish with a smaller total than the dealer and for this you have 12.49% odds. In conclusion, the odds for a defeat are standing somewhere at 74.03%.

The blackjack playing strategy continues now with a positive aspect. The odds of concluding the game between 17 and 21, and having the dealer bust or finish with a lower hand is of 20.05%. The rest of 5.92% accounts for pushes. So, the house edge is 20.05% - 74.03% = 53.98%, an average loss of 53.98 cents on the dollar.

The conclusions that come out from these blackjack betting strategy figures are:

1. Blackjack basic strategy chart advices on hitting instead of standing is correct;
2. The difference is of only 6% per dollar on the table, so firm players will not bring upon themselves an excessive penalty by defying the blackjack basic strategy suggestion;
3. If surrender sacrificing half your bet rather than playing out the hand is offered, using it will save an average of about four cents on the dollar.

Comparable interpretation can be used to make a distinction between the blackjack betting strategy options for 15 against 10. If you take the decision to stand, the figures are the same as with 16 (22.98% winning odds and 77.02 losing odds for 54.04% edge). The reason for these results is that you only win if the blackjack dealer busts and loses otherwise.

If you decide to hit on a 15, the odds of going over 21 and consequently losing decline from 61.54% to 58.58% while that of making a final hand at each level grows for that reason. Odds figures for wins, losses, and pushes on a hitting decision are 21.59%, 72.03%, and 6.38%, respectively. The house edge can be then calculated as 21.59 - 72.03 = 50.44%, an average loss of $0.5044 on the dollar. So the suggestion of the blackjack basic strategy to hit is more correct but also equal to the standing decision, both showing figures of 3.60 percent 3.60 cents on the dollar.

Sharp blackjack players may also consider 17 versus 10. The same as is with lower hand totals, this hand can't win unless the dealer busts. In this situation the odds of pushing by standing and the greater probability of going over 21 by hitting become factors. Deciding to stand on a 17 hand, you have odds of winning, losing, and pushing of 22.98%, 64.95%, and 12.07% respectively.

With a decision to hit, the odds of winning, losing and pushing are 18.28%, 76.72%, and 5.00%. In conclusion, edge is standing for 22.98% - 64.95% = 41.97%. And hitting is standing for 18.28% - 76.72% = 58.45%. In both cases you are more likely to a lose but the decision to stand is less onerous than hitting and surrender by 16.48 and 8.03 percent, respectively.