The majority of blackjack players are acquainted with the blackjack basic strategy in which properly doubling down [raising an initial bet then taking one and only one new card] is a plus bet. By basic blackjack strategy, players not only have an edge over the house, but are expected to make more, on the average, than by following any of the options.
Two times the money is at risk, and can be lost as well as won. With the exception that not many solid players are conscious of how this transforms into expected profit or what limitation to drawing a single card entails.
Imagine the consequences when one is doubling down in blackjack in the situation of holding a 10 versus up cards of two through nine. When the dealer’s face card is a 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 the blackjack betting strategy of doubling has the same probability of victory or failure as hitting.
If the dealer’s face card is a 7, 8 or 9, the blackjack betting strategy of doubling wins less and loses more often than hits. The simple explanation for this is that any blackjack player would stop after one card against two through six anyway. That would happen even if they would have a total under 17 (overlooking a small discrepancy for 12 vs. 2). Against the dealer’s face card showing 7 through 9, hands with totals under 17 can occasionally be pulled from the fire by hitting once more.
The whole lot that is essential about blackjack doubling down on a 10 is presented in the blackjack betting strategy table below. The only thing that is missing is the blackjack strategy secret to predicting when you'll be flooded with stiffs and when with the cards of your prayers.
Odds of winning, losing, and pushing when doubling down in blackjack or hitting a 10 in opposition to a 2 through 9 (hits on 12 vs. 2 are disregarded).
| Up card | Hitting | Doubling |
| | win | lose | push | win | lose | push |
| 2 | 55.06% | 37.11% | 7.83% | 55.06% | 37.11% | 7.83% |
| 3 | 56.44% | 35.97% | 7.59% | 56.44% | 35.97% | 7.59% |
| 4 | 57.85% | 34.80% | 7.35% | 57.85% | 34.80% | 7.35% |
| 5 | 59.26% | 33.64% | 7.10% | 59.26% | 33.64% | 7.10% |
| 6 | 61.00% | 32.22% | 6.78% | 61.00% | 32.22% | 6.78% |
| 7 | 57.83% | 32.14% | 10/03% | 56.07% | 36.44% | 7.49% |
| 8 | 54.89% | 35.09% | 10.02% | 53.46% | 39.13% | 7.41% |
| 9 | 50.14% | 38.49% | 11.37% | 49.26% | 42.04% | 8.70% |
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