How Blackjack Odds Increase Your Winnings

Leaving card counting aside, there are only two choices you can make when it comes to Blackjack strategy. One is to keep to basic strategy and never deviate from it. The other is to keep to basic strategy and deviate only part of the time. Sounds simple enough, doesn't it?

Basic strategy has been developed with the help of computers. This means that all the possible combinations and all the possible decisions have been simulated by the computer. The computer has calculated the best "statistically advantageous decision" for you to make. Following basic strategy means that at all times you will take the decision that has the highest statistical chance of winning. For the long run, this is the best strategy to follow.

The second choice is even simpler. Just do whatever you feel like doing, different than what basic strategy says you should do.

The best decision that any gambler can take is to use both these choices. Any gambler should stick to basic strategy, but when his instinct or gut feeling tell him differently, he should deviate. In reality no gambler sticks to basic strategy and doesn't deviate. For example, how many gamblers choose to surrender when basic strategy suggests it?

Basic strategy tells you which decisions have the highest statistical chance of winning. Although these decisions are statistically correct, sometimes they do not seem to be logical.

For example, if you are dealt a pair of nines, and the dealer's face up card is a 7, your instinct tells you to split. Splitting this hand has a logical chance of turning into two winning 18s. This would be a bad decision. The dealer's card total has a high statistical chance of being 17. Casino rules state that he must stand in this case. The dealer must stand and you have already won as your card total is 18. Splitting in this case would have been a mistake. Even if one of your hands would have reached a total of 18, the other may have busted. The best way to ensure that the outcome of the game is in your favor in this case is to follow basic strategy. Although it doesn't seem like the logical thing to do, numbers do not lie. According to computer simulations you will win $40 dollars for every $100 you use betting if you are dealt only double nines and use basic strategy. But if you follow your instinct and split your hand you will only win $36.90 dollars for every $100 betted.

There is one very important thing to remember when playing by instinct. Blackjack rules do not change from day to day. Then why should you change your strategy on a whim? If you would rather use instinct, then perhaps you should try a game of baccarat. Blackjack is mainly a game of skill.

The rules of the game will always influence your edge over the house. For example using perfect basic strategy in the classic Vegas Strip Blackjack game of the 1980s would bring the house edge down to zero. This means that you actually play an even game. This was made possible only because the classic Vegas Strip Blackjack followed these rules that were considered standard in those days:

• It was played with one deck of cards;
• The dealer must stand on soft 17;
• Double down is allowed no matter what your first two cards are;
• You are not allowed to double after splitting a hand;
• Except for Aces, all other cards can be split up to four times. After splitting a pair of Aces, you will be dealt only one more card;
• Surrender is never allowed.

Thanks to all these rules and by using perfect basic strategy, you could play an even game.

The following chart shows what rules of Blackjack influence your edge over the house when playing Blackjack.

Rule	Effect on Player Expectation
Two decks	-0.32%
Four decks	-0.48%
Six decks	-0.54%
Eight decks	-0.58%
Dealer hits soft 17	-0.20%
Double down only on 11 (no soft, no 10, no 9, no 8)	-0.78%
Double down only on 10 or 11 (no soft, no 9, no 8)	-0.26%
Double down only on 9, 10, 11 (no soft, no 8)	-0.14%
No re-splitting of any pairs	-0.03%
Dealer wins ties	-9.00%
Natural pays 1 to 1	-2.32%
Natural pays 2 to 1	+2.32%
Double down on any number of cards	+0.24%
Double down after splitting pairs	+0.14%
Late surrender	+0.06%
Early surrender	+0.62%
Six-card winner	+0.15%
Players 21 pushes dealer's 10-up Blackjack	+0.16%
Re-splitting of aces	+0.06%
Draw to split aces	+0.14%

These numbers can be applied even to modern games, and they would vary just slightly.

You can use this chart when picking a table to play Blackjack. Any rule with a plus sign next to it means that it will increase your edge over the house. So try to find a game that has as much favorable rules as possible. They work in your favor and your statistical chances of winning are greater.

In any normal game the house advantage is as high as 5% if the player does not use any strategy. Using basic strategy means that you can effectively eliminate this edge. The house advantage can drop to as low as 0.5% when using perfect basic strategy. Because of this you can win and win big at Blackjack. If you want to get the house advantage to an even lower value than 0.5%, then you should see some tips and suggestions on card counting.